MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Polymarket research briefs
89 published briefs on Polymarket markets, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
89 published briefs · Page 1 of 8
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Economy
MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 15 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 13 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Tech
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 13 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Economy
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 25 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by June 30, 2027?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Science
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 22 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by December 31?
25 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 12 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 23 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will 4 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 5 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Economy
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated