MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 14 of 18
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Politics
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 12 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 17 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Tech
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 19 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2027?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 15 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Dec 1, 2026)
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 13 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot