MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 15 of 18
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Politics
Will Florida Amendment 3, “Increased Homestead Exemption; Lower Cap on Increases in Non-Homestead Property Assessments” pass? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire? (John E. Sununu)
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026? (Ken Paxton and Susan Collins)
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? (Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 12 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa (Zach Lahn)
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Mississippi? (Scott Colom)
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia (Rick Jackson)
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina? (Darline Graham)
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 10 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? (Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Mexico (Deb Haaland)
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas? (Roger Marshall)
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 10 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine? (Susan Collins)
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot