MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Geopolitics research briefs
24 published geopolitics briefs, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
24 published briefs · Page 2 of 2
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Geopolitics
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 17 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?
16 dated claims from 3 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 12 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
30 dated claims from 17 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2027?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 2 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 1 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 5 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 31 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot