MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Geopolitics research briefs
24 published geopolitics briefs, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
24 published briefs · Page 1 of 2
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Geopolitics
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by June 30, 2027?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
30 dated claims from 19 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 7 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
30 dated claims from 19 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 19 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot