MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Kalshi research briefs
126 published briefs on Kalshi markets, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
126 published briefs · Page 6 of 11
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Tech
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Dec 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 21 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 262 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 17 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Flávio Bolsonaro visit Brazil before Jul 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 10 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Companies
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? (Before Nov 16, 2026)
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Dec 1, 2026?
29 dated claims from 4 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? (Above 25)
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 1.2 percentage points? (Colom, 1.2+ pts)
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Democrats hold at least 57 Senate seats after the 2026 election?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 16 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? (Before Jul 1, 2027)
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 23 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Crypto
Will Bitcoin exceed $95,000 by Nov 30, 2026? (Above $95,000)
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Board meeting? (Maintain current rate)
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 12 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot