MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Politics research briefs
134 published politics briefs, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
134 published briefs · Page 1 of 12
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Politics
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by December 31?
25 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 12 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 23 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will 4 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 5 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 22 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will France enact its 2027 budget before Jan 1, 2027? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Donald Trump meet in person Flávio Bolsonaro after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Cindy Hyde-Smith concede defeat in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race before Nov 21, 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated