MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Polymarket research briefs
89 published briefs on Polymarket markets, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
89 published briefs · Page 7 of 8
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Geopolitics
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 1 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 5 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 31 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 24 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 30 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 25 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
30 dated claims from 18 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 23 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 10 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 23 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 12 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 22 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 14 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 22 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
30 dated claims from 17 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 17 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 22 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Republicans control the House after the 2026 midterms?
Control of the US House after the 2026 midterm elections, resolving on which party wins a majority of voting seats. The evidence retained here is commentary and reporting on the parties' respective positions going into the midterms.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Friedrich Merz cease to be German Chancellor before 2027?
Resolves Yes if Merz ceases to be Chancellor for any period before 31 December 2026. The evidence here concerns pressures on his chancellorship and his public positioning.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) be signed into law in 2026?
A legislative-process market: the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act must pass both chambers and be signed by 31 December 2026. The evidence assembled here tracks the bill's progress and the positions taken around it. Legislative markets turn on floor time and calendar rather than on public sentiment, and the retrieved evidence speaks more to the former than the latter.
Research dated , an older snapshot