MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 11 of 18
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Politics
Will the Knesset elect a Speaker before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 4 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 16 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will it be reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives that Ilhan Omar casts a recorded vote in the U.S. House of Representatives before Dec 1, 2026? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that NHS England, the UK government, or another legally authorized contracting entity formally decides to end the NHS Federated Data Platform and Associated Serv
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 5 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Trump state that he has fired Lisa Cook before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 18 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 20 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 6 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a China-mediated meeting before Feb 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 6 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 42 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 5 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 6 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Elizabeth Warren be Chair of Senate Banking?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 10 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 6 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Brooklyn Beckham be seen in public with David or Victoria Beckham this year? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 13 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 6 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
24 dated claims from 3 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 6 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that construction begins on the proposed United States Triumphal Arch in Washington, D.C. before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 6 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Crypto
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 6 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Macro
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% by Nov 30, 2026? (4.83% or below)
29 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot