MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 12 of 18
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Economy
Will the Bank of Korea hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the number of the 13 Republican-favored 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) listed in the Additional Details won by a nominee of the Republican Party be at least 12 a
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 16 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Macro
What will the FDA's decision be on Ivonescimab by Summit Therapeutics in 2026? (a full approval or an accelerated approval)
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Troy Jackson underperform Kamala Harris in Maine?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will Central Bank of Brazil rate cuts for 2026 be 7 or more? (7 or more cuts)
22 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will permanent daylight savings become law before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 5 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 5 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Pete Hegseth be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 17 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 14 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot