MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 10 of 18
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Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? (Before Jul 1, 2027)
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 23 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 15 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 19 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Crypto
Will Bitcoin exceed $95,000 by Nov 30, 2026? (Above $95,000)
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 17 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Board meeting? (Maintain current rate)
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 12 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will at least 20 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Knesset approve a new government with both Likud and Yashar before Feb 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Department of Defense or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthrop
30 dated claims from 18 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 10 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 1 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 5 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot