MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 17 of 18
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Geopolitics
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2027?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 2 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Tech
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?
26 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 2 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 2 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 1 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 1 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 5 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 31 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 24 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 30 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
30 dated claims from 18 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 19 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 29 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 25 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
30 dated claims from 18 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 23 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 10 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 23 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot