MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 3 of 18
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Economy
Colombia wage growth minus inflation above 4.00 pp in 2027?
18 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Donald Trump meet in person Flávio Bolsonaro after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Cindy Hyde-Smith concede defeat in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race before Nov 21, 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth receive above 210 Yea votes in the House?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Economy
Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Senate has begun an impeachment trial of Pete Hegseth before Jul 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will the White House announce an end to its press ban before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Chuck Schumer be reelected Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress by voice vote or acclamation? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? (At least 50)
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 19 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Trump, Xi and Putin meet together before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 20 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Weather
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 13 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated