MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 4 of 18
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Crypto
XRP price on Jan 1, 2027? ($0.7500 - $0.9999)
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 10 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Gadi Eisenkot win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election?
30 dated claims from 17 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will the number of articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth that the U.S. House of Representatives adopts be at least 1 before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 5 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Tech
Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 15 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Crypto
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 5 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Macro
Will Uber Eats app downloads for November 2026 be above 106.5 ?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 44% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 18 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
30 dated claims from 19 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Hakeem Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that PAHO's Regional Verification Commission (RVC) determines that endemic measles transmission has been re-established in the United States before Ja
26 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will average gas prices go above $4.30 by Nov 30, 2026?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot