MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 6 of 18
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Economy
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Crypto
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026? (Chainlink (LINK))
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 174 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
30 dated claims from 19 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 24 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Crypto
Will Cardano trade below $0.15 by November 30, 2026?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Crypto
Will Cardano trade above $0.25 by November 30, 2026?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 7 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Macro
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Nov 30, 2026? (5.07% or above)
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 7 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Nov 2026?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Brazil President be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva AND Israel Prime Minister be Gadi Eizenkot AND U.S. Senate Control be Democratic? (Lula, Eizenkot, Democrats)
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will the Central Bank of Brazil cut 1-25bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 7 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Science
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?
29 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot