MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 7 of 18
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Politics
Will Ron DeSantis announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Donald Trump meet in person Vladimir Putin before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Macro
Who will IPO before 2027? (Anthropic)
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 26 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Mike Johnson announce their departure as U.S. Representative before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Tech
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 10 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Thomas Massie vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 17 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%? (Mary Peltola, 3-6%)
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? (Before Nov 21, 2026)
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 21 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 10% and 12%? (Nithya Raman, 10-12%)
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 10 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 10%? (Nithya Raman, ≥10%)
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the number of Republican Representatives voting Yea on the first House vote on adopting a resolution or article impeaching Pete Hegseth be at least 1 before Jan 3, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 17 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot