MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 5 of 18
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Economy
When will OpenAI IPO? (Before Apr 1, 2027)
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet in person before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Macro
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.49 on Dec 31, 2026? (5.5% or above)
26 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Democrats win all 2026 U.S. House and Senate elections in New England? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 1ㅤ?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
24 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Macro
Will Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 58.5 ?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 19 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Attorney election? (Marissa Roy)
17 dated claims from 3 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 13 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Viktor Orbán)
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp hike AND dissents be 0 for Dec 2026? (Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0)
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 12 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot