MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 9 of 18
-
Economy
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 5 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Economy
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Dec 1, 2026?
29 dated claims from 4 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? (Above 25)
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 1.2 percentage points? (Colom, 1.2+ pts)
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will Democrats hold at least 57 Senate seats after the 2026 election?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 16 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Crypto
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 22 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 12 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Tech
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 28 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 20 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Tech
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 5 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot