MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
215 published briefs · Page 8 of 18
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Geopolitics
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 7 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Geopolitics
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
30 dated claims from 19 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Mississippi be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Maxine Waters be Chair of House Financial Services?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Macro
Will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 10 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Democrats win all four? (Democratic sweep)
30 dated claims from 17 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Tech
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Dec 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 21 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 262 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 17 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Flávio Bolsonaro visit Brazil before Jul 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 10 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Companies
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? (Before Nov 16, 2026)
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Economy
Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by December 31, 2026?
18 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot