MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Politics research briefs
134 published politics briefs, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
134 published briefs · Page 3 of 12
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Politics
Will Democrats win all 2026 U.S. House and Senate elections in New England? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
24 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Attorney election? (Marissa Roy)
17 dated claims from 3 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 13 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Viktor Orbán)
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 174 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
30 dated claims from 19 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 24 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Nov 2026?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Brazil President be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva AND Israel Prime Minister be Gadi Eizenkot AND U.S. Senate Control be Democratic? (Lula, Eizenkot, Democrats)
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Ron DeSantis announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Donald Trump meet in person Vladimir Putin before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 11 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Mike Johnson announce their departure as U.S. Representative before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot